Get ready for the NVIDIA earnings preview, where we dive into the company's Q3 FY2026 performance! The future of AI is at stake, and NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture is leading the charge.
NVIDIA is set to release its Q3 earnings on November 19th, 2025, and we're here to break down what to expect. With its AI chip dominance, NVIDIA continues to thrive despite geopolitical challenges. But here's where it gets controversial: the company's Q2 results showed a slight dip in data center revenue, raising questions about its growth trajectory.
At the core of NVIDIA's success is the Blackwell architecture, described by CEO Jensen Huang as an exceptional leap forward. Production is ramping up, and demand is through the roof. But will this be enough to sustain NVIDIA's growth?
Let's dive into the Q2 financial highlights:
- Revenue: NVIDIA smashed estimates with $46.74 billion, a 56% YoY increase! This marks an impressive nine consecutive quarters of over 50% YoY growth, but Q2 saw a slight slowdown.
- Earnings per Share (EPS): Adjusted EPS of $1.05, up 54% YoY and 30% QoQ, beating forecasts.
- Net Income: GAAP net income of $26.4 billion, a 59% YoY and 41% QoQ increase. Non-GAAP net income was $25.8 billion, up 52% YoY.
- Gross Margins: Impressive margins of 72.4% GAAP and 72.7% non-GAAP, adjusted to 72.3% excluding an inventory release benefit.
Segment-wise, data center revenue accounted for 85% of the total, reaching $41.1 billion, a 56% YoY increase, but a 1% QoQ decrease. Gaming, professional visualization, and automotive segments also saw impressive YoY growth.
NVIDIA's board authorized an additional $60 billion in share repurchases, a strong vote of confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
Now, let's look ahead to Q3. NVIDIA's guidance suggests:
- Revenue: $54 billion (±2%), indicating a 16% QoQ and 50%+ YoY growth. Data center sales are expected to exceed $48 billion as Blackwell production scales.
- EPS: $1.17, a ~12% QoQ increase.
- Gross Margins: GAAP at 73.3% and non-GAAP at 73.5% (±50 basis points).
- Data Center Revenue: Forecasted at $48.58 billion, up 18% QoQ and 52% YoY.
- Gaming Revenue: Expected to rise to $4.44 billion, a 3% QoQ and 25% YoY increase.
Key areas to watch in Q3 include the Blackwell ramp and supply chain updates, China exposure, and segment momentum. Will these factors drive NVIDIA's growth, or will they pose risks?
And this is the part most people miss: NVIDIA's recent circular deals. The company has been investing in key customers and partners, locking in billions in forward revenue. CEO Jensen Huang sees this as a strategic move for a multitrillion-dollar AI future. However, critics argue these deals resemble vendor financing practices from the dot-com era, potentially masking demand weaknesses. If AI adoption slows, these interlocking dependencies could amplify risks.
The scale of these deals is massive. For instance, OpenAI's commitment to AI infrastructure since mid-2025 exceeds $1 trillion, much of which flows back to NVIDIA. Proponents argue these transactions are not circular, but critics disagree, seeing a potential echo of the vendor-financed bubble.
So, is NVIDIA a buy or a sell? With a TipRanks Smart Score of '9 outperform' and a 'strong buy' rating from analysts, the consensus is bullish. But with YoY growth moderating, the focus shifts to qualitative insights on AI inference economics and sovereign AI deals.
The options market prices in an implied move of ±8.5% for NVIDIA's share price post-earnings. At current levels (~$199 per share), this suggests a potential rise to $215 or a drop to $183.
Technically, NVIDIA's share price has rallied ~143% from its April low to a recent high before falling ~15%. Its rebound has been decisive, returning to the bullish trend channel. Staying above trend support at $184 and the recent $178.91 low keeps the bullish structure intact, opening the door for a retest of all-time highs. However, a sustained break below these levels could negate the bullish setup.
What's your take on NVIDIA's future? Will it continue to dominate the AI chip market, or are there risks on the horizon? Share your thoughts in the comments!
