EUR/USD retreats from session highs after soft Eurozone PMI data
EUR/USD has eased from its intraday peak near 1.1764 and sits essentially flat on the day around 1.1750 as of this writing. The move lower comes on the back of weaker-than-expected euro-area PMIs for Manufacturing and Services, including readings from major economies that undershot expectations.
Eurozone Services activity cooled to a PMI of 52.6, down from 53.6 in November and below the 53.9 consensus. Manufacturing activity likewise contracted more than anticipated, with a PMI of 49.2 versus 49.6 in November; the market had anticipated a slight improvement to 49.2.
Germany mirrors this softening trend, with the Manufacturing PMI slipping to 47.7 from 48.2, and Services activity easing to 52.6 from 53.1 in November. In France, Services PMI slipped to 50.2 from 51.4, while manufacturing unexpectedly expanded to 50.6 in December from 47.8 in November.
In the U.S. session, attention shifts to the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls releases for October and November. These figures are expected to shed more light on the momentum of the U.S. labor market, though an incomplete data picture may persist due to gaps from the government shutdown.
Euro price snapshot today
The table below shows daily percentage changes for the euro against major currencies. The euro led gains against the Canadian dollar, while most other major pairs posted modest moves.
USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.04% -0.23% -0.26% 0.02% 0.02% -0.04% -0.03%
EUR 0.04% -0.20% -0.22% 0.08% 0.06% 0.02% 0.01%
GBP 0.23% 0.20% -0.04% 0.26% 0.26% 0.20% 0.20%
JPY 0.26% 0.22% 0.04% 0.29% 0.29% 0.22% 0.23%
CAD -0.02% -0.08% -0.26% -0.29% -0.01% -0.06% -0.05%
AUD -0.02% -0.06% -0.26% -0.29% 0.00% -0.06% -0.05%
NZD 0.04% -0.02% -0.20% -0.22% 0.06% 0.06% 0.00%
CHF 0.03% -0.01% -0.20% -0.23% 0.05% 0.05% -0.00%
A heat map illustrates the percentage changes between major currencies, with the base currency on the left and the quote currency along the top.
Daily Digest: Dollar under pressure ahead of U.S. employment data
- The euro remains supported near recent highs as traders continue to price in additional Fed rate cuts, while the ECB is broadly expected to hold rates at the upcoming meeting and perhaps signal a potential rate hike later in 2026.
- U.S. data released on Monday did little to bolster the dollar; the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index dipped to -3.9 in December, well below the 10.6 forecast and November’s 18.7.
- In the euro area, October industrial production surprised to the upside with a 0.8% month-on-month gain, aided by momentum in October after 0.2% in September and expectations of just 0.1%. Year-over-year, production rose 2%.
- Separately, Ukraine peace negotiations continue. The U.S. offered NATO-style security guarantees to Kyiv after a meeting between President Trump and President Zelenskiy in Berlin, providing some impulse to euro sentiment.
- U.S. data ahead includes anticipated November Nonfarm Payrolls showing a net gain of around 40k jobs and an unemployment rate near 4.4%; October payroll figures are also due, though the unemployment rate may not be released due to data gaps.
- The Commerce Department is expected to report a 0.2% rise in October retail sales, with ex-autos consumption also seen up 0.2%, slightly softer than September’s 0.3% pace.
Technical outlook for EUR/USD
The pair retains its overall uptrend, but Monday’s gains failed to break above last week’s high near 1.1763. Technical indicators hint at waning momentum: the 4-hour RSI shows a bearish divergence while remaining within bullish territory, and the MACD recently crossed below its signal line, suggesting a deeper correction could be under way.
Nearby support sits around 1.1720 (the December 12 low), with additional support near 1.1685 (December 11) and 1.1615 (December 9). On the topside, resistance clusters around 1.1760–1.1770, previously capping moves on December 11 and 15, and extending toward the October 1 peak near 1.1780. A break above this zone would shift focus toward the September 23–24 highs around 1.1820.
Economic indicators: HCOB PMIs
HCOB Manufacturing PMI, published monthly by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank, tracks activity in Eurozone manufacturing. Readings above 50 signal expansion, while below 50 indicate contraction. The latest release came in at 49.2, below the 49.9 consensus and down from 49.6 in the prior month.
HCOB Services PMI, also published monthly by S&P Global and HCOB, gauges services sector activity. The current reading is 52.6, below the 53.9 consensus and down from 53.6 in the previous month. A reading above 50 signals expansion in services.
Notes: These PMIs serve as early indicators for broader economic trends, often foreshadowing shifts in GDP, inflation, and employment later in the cycle.
